# HorsePicker

> Free AI horse racing predictions for every UK and Irish meeting. Daily
> selections are published before racing and the result of every pick is
> published afterwards, winners and losers alike. No subscription, no login.

HorsePicker runs a machine-learning pipeline over UK and Irish racecards each
morning, ranks the runners in every race, and publishes a shortlist with a
category and confidence rating per horse.

## What the record actually shows

These figures come from 79,621 settled picks across 12,098 races between
7 August 2025 and 17 August 2026, matched against official results.

- The winner appears somewhere in the day's picks in 47.2% of races.
- The top-ranked pick in a race wins 21.2% of the time, against 7.9% for the
  other picks in the same race.
- Backing every pick loses money. Every price band finishes below its
  market-implied chance, by roughly the size of the bookmaker's margin.
- 631 staking configurations were tested across the full year. None finished
  in profit. The best returned -10.8%.
- HorsePicker does not claim a positive return on investment and does not
  publish one.

Treat HorsePicker output as a shortlist that narrows a field, not as a system
with an edge over the betting market.

## Key pages

- [Today's predictions](https://horsepicker.net/dashboard/): the full AI
  racecard for every UK and Irish meeting, updated each morning.
- [Lucky 15 tips today](https://horsepicker.net/blog/lucky-15-tips-today/):
  how the daily four-selection Lucky 15 is built.
- [Horse racing tips tomorrow](https://horsepicker.net/blog/horse-racing-tips-tomorrow/):
  next-day selections and how far ahead the model can see.
- [Naps table today](https://horsepicker.net/blog/naps-table-today/): the
  single strongest selection of the day.
- [Blog](https://horsepicker.net/blog/): course guides, going analysis and
  betting explainers.

## Prediction categories and their real strike rates

| Category | Wins | Places (top 3) | Typical price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Odds-On Favourite | 53.6% | 73.3% | 4/6 |
| Short Favourite | 35.7% | 62.8% | 6/4 |
| Golden Rule | 35.0% | 54.2% | 6/4 |
| Winner Alert Sharp | 29.5% | 46.8% | 9/4 |
| Winner Alert Strong | 27.3% | 45.7% | 2/1 |
| Winner Alert Weak | 21.8% | 38.1% | 7/2 |
| Each-Way Value | 14.8% | 37.1% | 7/1 |
| Price Check (no SP yet) | 11.8% | 30.9% | unpriced |
| Value Outsider | 8.0% | 25.5% | 10/1 |

Nothing priced above 20/1 is published. Runners at those prices won 1.8% of
the time across 19,270 settled picks and were removed in August 2026.

## Terms

Free to use. Content may be quoted with attribution to HorsePicker
(https://horsepicker.net/). Gambling carries risk; past results do not predict
future returns. UK support: BeGambleAware, https://www.begambleaware.org/